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A Detailed Summary of Every Single Reason Why I am Bullish on Ethereum

The following will be a list of the many reasons why I hold and am extremely bullish on ETH.

This is an extremely long post. If you just want the hopium without the detail, read the TL;DR at the bottom.

ETH 2.0

As we all know, ETH 2.0 phase 0 is right around the corner. This will lock up ETH and stakers will earn interest on their ETH in return for securing the network. Next comes phase 1 where the ETH 2 shards are introduced, shards are essentially parallel blockchains which are each responsible for a different part of Ethereum’s workload, think of it like a multi-core processor vs a single core processor. During phase 1, these shards will only act as data availability layers and won’t actually process transactions yet. However, their data can be utilised by the L2 scaling solution, rollups, increasing Ethereum’s throughput in transactions per second up to 100,000 TPS.
After phase 1 comes phase 1.5 which will move the ETH 1.0 chain into an ETH 2 shard and Ethereum will be fully secured by proof of stake. This means that ETH issuance will drop from around 5% per year to less than 1% and with EIP-1559, ETH might become a deflationary asset, but more on that later.
Finally, with ETH 2.0 phase two, each shard will be fully functional chains. With 64 of them, we can expect the base layer of Ethereum to scale around 64x, not including the massive scaling which comes from layer 2 scaling solutions like rollups as previously mentioned.
While the scaling benefits and ETH issuance reduction which comes with ETH 2.0 will be massive, they aren’t the only benefits. We also get benefits such as increased security from PoS compared to PoW, a huge energy efficiency improvement due to the removal of PoW and also the addition of eWASM which will allow contracts to be programmed in a wide range of programming languages, opening the floodgates for millions of web devs who want to be involved in Ethereum but don’t know Ethereum’s programming language, Solidity.

EIP-1559 and ETH scarcity

As I covered in a previous post of mine, ETH doesn’t have a supply cap like Bitcoin. Instead, it has a monetary policy of “minimum viable issuance”, not only is this is a good thing for network security, but with the addition of EIP-1559, it leaves the door open to the possibility of ETH issuance going negative. In short, EIP-1559 changes the fee market to make transaction prices more efficient (helping to alleviate high gas fees!) by burning a variable base fee which changes based on network usage demand rather than using a highest bidder market where miners simply include who pays them the most. This will result in most of the ETH being paid in transaction fees being burned. As of late, the amount which would be burned if EIP-1559 was in Ethereum right now would make ETH a deflationary asset!

Layer 2 Scaling

In the mean time while we are waiting for ETH 2.0, layer 2 scaling is here. Right now, projects such as Deversifi or Loopring utilise rollups to scale to thousands of tx/s on their decentralised exchange platforms or HoneySwap which uses xDai to offer a more scalable alternative to UniSwap. Speaking of which, big DeFi players like UniSwap and Synthetix are actively looking into using optimistic rollups to scale while maintaining composability between DeFi platforms. The most bullish thing about L2 scaling is all of the variety of options. Here’s a non exhaustive list of Ethereum L2 scaling solutions: - Aztec protocol (L2 scaling + privacy!) - ZKSync - Loopring - Raiden - Arbitrum Rollups - xDai - OMGNetwork - Matic - FuelLabs - Starkware - Optimism - Celer Network - + Many more

DeFi and Composability

If you’re reading this, I am sure you are aware of the phenomena which is Decentralised Finance (DeFi or more accurately, open finance). Ethereum is the first platform to offer permissionless and immutable financial services which when interacting with each other, lead to unprecedented composability and innovation in financial applications. A whole new world of possibilities are opening up thanks to this composability as it allows anyone to take existing pieces of open source code from other DeFi projects, put them together like lego pieces (hence the term money legos) and create something the world has never seen before. None of this was possible before Ethereum because typically financial services are heavily regulated and FinTech is usually proprietary software, so you don’t have any open source lego bricks to build off and you have to build everything you need from scratch. That is if what you want to do is even legal for a centralised institution!
Oh, and if you think that DeFi was just a fad and the bubble has popped, guess again! Total value locked in DeFi is currently at an all time high. Don’t believe me? Find out for yourself on the DeFi Pulse website.

NFTs and tokeniation

NFTs or “Non-Fungible Tokens” - despite the name which may confuse a layman - are a basic concept. They are unique tokens with their own unique attributes. This allows you to create digital art, human readable names for your ETH address (see ENS names and unstoppable domains), breedable virtual collectible creatures like crypto kitties, ownable in game assets like Gods Unchained cards or best of all in my opinion, tokenised ownership of real world assets which can even be split into pieces (this doesn’t necessarily require an NFT. Fungible tokens can be/are used for some of the following use cases). This could be tokenised ownership of real estate (see RealT), tokenised ownership of stocks, bonds and other financial assets (which by the way makes them tradable 24/7 and divisible unlike through the traditional system) or even tokenised ownership of the future income of a celebrity or athlete (see when NBA player Spencer Dinwiddie tokenized his own NBA contract.)

Institutional Adoption

Ethereum is by far the most widely adopted blockchain by enterprises. Ethereum’s Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA) is the largest blockchain-enterprise partnership program and Ethereum is by far the most frequently leveraged blockchain for proof of concepts and innovation in the blockchain space by enterprises. Meanwhile, there are protocols like the Baseline protocol which is a shared framework which allows enterprises to use Ethereum as a common frame of reference and a base settlement layer without having to give up privacy when settling on the public Ethereum mainnet. This framework makes adopting Ethereum much easier for other enterprises.

Institutional Investment

One of Bitcoin’s biggest things it has going for it right now is the growing institutional investment. In case you were wondering, Ethereum has this too! Grayscale offers investment in the cryptocurrency space for financial institutions and their Ethereum fund has already locked up more than 2% of the total supply of ETH. Not only this, but as businesses transact on Ethereum and better understand it, not only will they buy up ETH to pay for their transactions, but they will also realise that much like Bitcoin, Ethereum is a scarce asset. Better yet, a scarce asset which offers yield. As a result, I expect to see companies having ETH holdings become the norm just like how Bitcoin is becoming more widespread on companies’ balance sheets.

The state of global markets

With asset prices in almost every asset class at or near all-time highs and interest rates lower than ever and even negative in some cases, there really aren’t many good opportunities in the traditional financial system right now. Enter crypto - clearly the next evolution of financial services (as I explained in the section on DeFi earlier in this post), with scarce assets built in at the protocol layer, buying BTC or ETH is a lot like buying shares in TCP/IP in 1990 (that is if the underlying protocols of the internet could be invested in which they couldn’t). Best of all, major cryptos are down from their all-time highs anywhere between 35% for BTC or 70% for ETH and much more for many altcoins. This means that they can significantly appreciate in value before entering uncharted, speculative bubble territory.
While of course we could fall dramatically at any moment in the current macro financial conditions, as a longer term play, crypto is very alluring. The existing financial system has shown that it is in dire need of replacing and the potential replacement has started rearing its head in the form of crypto and DeFi.

Improvements in user onboarding and abstracting away complexity

Ethereum has started making huge leaps forward in terms of usability for the end user. We now have ENS names and unstoppable domains which allow you to send ETH to yournamehere.ETH or TrickyTroll.crypto (I don’t actually have that domain, that’s just an example). No longer do you have to check every character of your ugly hexadecimal 0x43AB96D… ETH address to ensure you’re sending your ETH to the right person. We also have smart contract wallets like Argent wallet or the Gnosis safe. These allow for users to access their wallets and interact with DeFi self-custodially from an app on their phone without having to record a private key or recovery phrase. Instead, they offer social recovery and their UI is straight forward enough for anyone who uses a smart phone to understand. Finally, for the more experienced users, DApps like Uniswap have pretty, super easy to use graphical user interfaces and can be used by anyone who knows how to run and use a browser extension like Metamask.

The lack of an obvious #1 ETH killer

One of Ethereum’s biggest threats is for it to be overthrown by a so-called “Ethereum killer” blockchain which claims to do everything Ethereum can do and sometimes more. While there are competitors which are each formidable to a certain extent such as Polkadot, Cardano and EOS, each have their own weaknesses. For example, Polkadot and Cardano are not fully operational yet and EOS is much more centralised than Ethereum. As a result, none of these competitors have any significant network effects just yet relative to the behemoth which is Ethereum. This doesn’t mean that these projects aren’t a threat. In fact, I am sure that projects like Polkadot (which is more focused on complimenting Ethereum than killing it) will take a slice out of Ethereum’s pie. However, I am still very confident that Ethereum will remain on top due to the lack of a clear number 2 smart contract platform. Since none of these ETH killers stands out as the second place smart contract platform, it makes it much harder for one project to create a network effect which even begins to threaten Ethereum’s dominance. This leads me onto my next reason - network effects.

Network effects

This is another topic which I made a previous post on. The network effect is why Bitcoin is still the number one cryptocurrency and by such a long way. Bitcoin is not the most technologically advanced cryptocurrency. However, it has the most widespread name recognition and the most adoption in most metrics (ETH beats in in some metrics these days). The network effect is also why most people use Zoom and Facebook messengeWhatsApp despite the existence of free, private, end to end encrypted alternatives which have all the same features (Jitsi for the zoom alternative and Signal for the private messenger app. I highly recommend both. Let’s get their network effects going!). It is the same for Bitcoin. People don’t want to have to learn about or set up a wallet for alternative options. People like what is familiar and what other people use. Nobody wants to be “that guy” who makes you download yet another app and account you have to remember the password/private key for. In the same way, Enterprises don’t want to have to create a bridge between their existing systems and a dozen different blockchains. Developers don’t want to have to create DeFi money legos from scratch on a new chain if they can just plug in to existing services like Uniswap. Likewise, users don’t want to have to download another browser extension to use DApps on another chain if they already use Ethereum. I know personally I have refrained from investing in altcoins because I would have to install another app on my hardware wallet or remember another recovery phrase.
Overthrowing Ethereum’s network effect is one hell of a big task these days. Time is running out for the ETH killers.

Ethereum is the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform

Ethereum is also arguably the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform (except for maybe Ethereum Classic on the neutrality part). Unlike some smart contract platforms, you can’t round up everyone at the Ethereum Foundation or any select group of people and expect to be able to stop the network. Not only this, but the Ethereum foundation doesn’t have the ability to print more ETH or push through changes as they wish like some people would lead you on to believe. The community would reject detrimental EIPs and hard fork. Ever since the DAO hack, the Ethereum community has made it clear that it will not accept EIPs which attempt to roll back the chain even to recover hacked funds (see EIP-999).
Even if governments around the world wanted to censor the Ethereum blockchain, under ETH 2.0’s proof of stake, it would be incredibly costly and would require a double digit percentage of the total ETH supply, much of which would be slashed (meaning they would lose it) as punishment for running dishonest validator nodes. This means that unlike with proof of work where a 51% attacker can keep attacking the network, under proof of stake, an attacker can only perform the attack a couple of times before they lose all of their ETH. This makes attacks much less financially viable than it is on proof of work chains. Network security is much more than what I laid out above and I am far from an expert but the improved resistance to 51% attacks which PoS provides is significant.
Finally, with the US dollar looking like it will lose its reserve currency status and the existing wire transfer system being outdated, superpowers like China won’t want to use US systems and the US won’t want to use a Chinese system. Enter Ethereum, the provably neutral settlement layer where the USA and China don’t have to trust each other or each other’s banks because they can trust Ethereum. While it may sound like a long shot, it does make sense if Ethereum hits a multi-trillion dollar market cap that it is the most secure and neutral way to transfer value between these adversaries. Not to mention if much of the world’s commerce were to be settled in the same place - on Ethereum - then it would make sense for governments to settle on the same platform.

ETH distribution is decentralised

Thanks to over 5 years of proof of work - a system where miners have to sell newly minted ETH to pay for electricity costs - newly mined ETH has found its way into the hands of everyday people who buy ETH off miners selling on exchnages. As pointed out by u/AdamSC1 in his analysis of the top 10K ETH addresses (I highly recommend reading this if you haven’t already), the distribution of ETH is actually slightly more decentralised than Bitcoin with the top 10,000 ETH wallets holding 56.70% of ETH supply compared to the top 10,000 Bitcoin wallets which hold 57.44% of the Bitcoin supply. This decentralised distribution means that the introduction of staking won’t centralise ETH in the hands of a few wallets who could then control the network. This is an advantage for ETH which many proof of stake ETH killers will never have as they never used PoW to distribute funds widely throughout the community and these ETH killers often did funding rounds giving large numbers of tokens to VC investors.

The community

Finally, while I may be biased, I think that Ethereum has the friendliest community. Anecdotally, I find that the Ethereum developer community is full of forward thinking people who want to make the world a better place and build a better future, many of whom are altruistic and don’t always act in their best interests. Compare this to the much more conservative, “at least we’re safe while the world burns” attitude which many Bitcoiners have. I don’t want to generalise too much here as the Bitcoin community is great too and there are some wonderful people there. But the difference is clear if you compare the daily discussion of Bitcoin to the incredibly helpful and welcoming daily discussion of EthFinance who will happily answer your noob questions without calling you an idiot and telling you to do you own research (there are plenty more examples in any of the daily threads). Or the very helpful folks over at EthStaker who will go out of their way to help you set up an ETH 2.0 staking node on the testnets (Shoutout to u/superphiz who does a lot of work over in that sub!). Don’t believe me? Head over to those subs and see for yourself.
Please don’t hate on me if you disagree about which project has the best community, it is just my very biased personal opinion and I respect your opinion if you disagree! :)

TL;DR:

submitted by Tricky_Troll to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

A Detailed Summary of Every Single Reason Why I am Bullish on ETH.

The following will be a list of the many reasons why I hold and am extremely bullish on ETH.

This is an extremely long post. If you just want the hopium without the detail, read the TL;DR at the bottom.

ETH 2.0

As we all know, ETH 2.0 phase 0 is right around the corner. This will lock up ETH and stakers will earn interest on their ETH in return for securing the network. Next comes phase 1 where the ETH 2 shards are introduced, shards are essentially parallel blockchains which are each responsible for a different part of Ethereum’s workload, think of it like a multi-core processor vs a single core processor. During phase 1, these shards will only act as data availability layers and won’t actually process transactions yet. However, their data can be utilised by the L2 scaling solution, rollups, increasing Ethereum’s throughput in transactions per second up to 100,000 TPS.
After phase 1 comes phase 1.5 which will move the ETH 1.0 chain into an ETH 2 shard and Ethereum will be fully secured by proof of stake. This means that ETH issuance will drop from around 5% per year to less than 1% and with EIP-1559, ETH might become a deflationary asset, but more on that later.
Finally, with ETH 2.0 phase two, each shard will be fully functional chains. With 64 of them, we can expect the base layer of Ethereum to scale around 64x, not including the massive scaling which comes from layer 2 scaling solutions like rollups as previously mentioned.
While the scaling benefits and ETH issuance reduction which comes with ETH 2.0 will be massive, they aren’t the only benefits. We also get benefits such as increased security from PoS compared to PoW, a huge energy efficiency improvement due to the removal of PoW and also the addition of eWASM which will allow contracts to be programmed in a wide range of programming languages, opening the floodgates for millions of web devs who want to be involved in Ethereum but don’t know Ethereum’s programming language, Solidity.

EIP-1559 and ETH scarcity

As I covered in a previous post of mine, ETH doesn’t have a supply cap like Bitcoin. Instead, it has a monetary policy of “minimum viable issuance”, not only is this is a good thing for network security, but with the addition of EIP-1559, it leaves the door open to the possibility of ETH issuance going negative. In short, EIP-1559 changes the fee market to make transaction prices more efficient (helping to alleviate high gas fees!) by burning a variable base fee which changes based on network usage demand rather than using a highest bidder market where miners simply include who pays them the most. This will result in most of the ETH being paid in transaction fees being burned. As of late, the amount which would be burned if EIP-1559 was in Ethereum right now would make ETH a deflationary asset!

Layer 2 Scaling

In the mean time while we are waiting for ETH 2.0, layer 2 scaling is here. Right now, projects such as Deversifi or Loopring utilise rollups to scale to thousands of tx/s on their decentralised exchange platforms or HoneySwap which uses xDai to offer a more scalable alternative to UniSwap. Speaking of which, big DeFi players like UniSwap and Synthetix are actively looking into using optimistic rollups to scale while maintaining composability between DeFi platforms. The most bullish thing about L2 scaling is all of the variety of options. Here’s a non exhaustive list of Ethereum L2 scaling solutions: - Aztec protocol (L2 scaling + privacy!) - ZKSync - Loopring - Raiden - Arbitrum Rollups - xDai - OMGNetwork - Matic - FuelLabs - Starkware - Optimism - Celer Network - + Many more

DeFi and Composability

If you’re reading this, I am sure you are aware of the phenomena which is Decentralised Finance (DeFi or more accurately, open finance). Ethereum is the first platform to offer permissionless and immutable financial services which when interacting with each other, lead to unprecedented composability and innovation in financial applications. A whole new world of possibilities are opening up thanks to this composability as it allows anyone to take existing pieces of open source code from other DeFi projects, put them together like lego pieces (hence the term money legos) and create something the world has never seen before. None of this was possible before Ethereum because typically financial services are heavily regulated and FinTech is usually proprietary software, so you don’t have any open source lego bricks to build off and you have to build everything you need from scratch. That is if what you want to do is even legal for a centralised institution!
Oh, and if you think that DeFi was just a fad and the bubble has popped, guess again! Total value locked in DeFi is currently at an all time high. Don’t believe me? Find out for yourself at: https://defipulse.com

NFTs and tokeniation

NFTs or “Non-Fungible Tokens” - despite the name which may confuse a layman - are a basic concept. They are unique tokens with their own unique attributes. This allows you to create digital art, human readable names for your ETH address (see ENS names and unstoppable domains), breedable virtual collectible creatures like crypto kitties, ownable in game assets like Gods Unchained cards or best of all in my opinion, tokenised ownership of real world assets which can even be split into pieces (this doesn’t necessarily require an NFT. Fungible tokens can be/are used for some of the following use cases). This could be tokenised ownership of real estate (see RealT), tokenised ownership of stocks, bonds and other financial assets (which by the way makes them tradable 24/7 and divisible unlike through the traditional system) or even tokenised ownership of the future income of a celebrity or athlete (see when NBA Star Spencer Dinwiddie Tokenized His Own NBA Contract.

Institutional Adoption

Ethereum is by far the most widely adopted blockchain by enterprises. Ethereum’s Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA) is the largest blockchain-enterprise partnership program and Ethereum is by far the most frequently leveraged blockchain for proof of concepts and innovation in the blockchain space by enterprises. Meanwhile, there are protocols like the Baseline protocol which is a shared framework which allows enterprises to use Ethereum as a common frame of reference and a base settlement layer without having to give up privacy when settling on the public Ethereum mainnet. This framework makes adopting Ethereum much easier for other enterprises.

Institutional Investment

One of Bitcoin’s biggest things it has going for it right now is the growing institutional investment. In case you were wondering, Ethereum has this too! Grayscale offers investment in the cryptocurrency space for financial institutions and their Ethereum fund has already locked up more than 2% of the total supply of ETH. Not only this, but as businesses transact on Ethereum and better understand it, not only will they buy up ETH to pay for their transactions, but they will also realise that much like Bitcoin, Ethereum is a scarce asset. Better yet, a scarce asset which offers yield. As a result, I expect to see companies having ETH holdings become the norm just like how Bitcoin is becoming more widespread on companies’ balance sheets.

The state of global markets

With asset prices in almost every asset class at or near all-time highs and interest rates lower than ever and even negative in some cases, there really aren’t many good opportunities in the traditional financial system right now. Enter crypto - clearly the next evolution of financial services (as I explained in the section on DeFi earlier in this post), with scarce assets built in at the protocol layer, buying BTC or ETH is a lot like buying shares in TCP/IP in 1990 (that is if the underlying protocols of the internet could be invested in which they couldn’t). Best of all, major cryptos are down from their all-time highs anywhere between 35% for BTC or 70% for ETH and much more for many altcoins. This means that they can significantly appreciate in value before entering uncharted, speculative bubble territory.
While of course we could fall dramatically at any moment in the current macro financial conditions, as a longer term play, crypto is very alluring. The existing financial system has shown that it is in dire need of replacing and the potential replacement has started rearing its head in the form of crypto and DeFi.

Improvements in user onboarding and abstracting away complexity

Ethereum has started making huge leaps forward in terms of usability for the end user. We now have ENS names and unstoppable domains which allow you to send ETH to yournamehere.ETH or TrickyTroll.crypto (I don’t actually have that domain, that’s just an example). No longer do you have to check every character of your ugly hexadecimal 0x43AB96D… ETH address to ensure you’re sending your ETH to the right person. We also have smart contract wallets like Argent wallet or the Gnosis safe. These allow for users to access their wallets and interact with DeFi self-custodially from an app on their phone without having to record a private key or recovery phrase. Instead, they offer social recovery and their UI is straight forward enough for anyone who uses a smart phone to understand. Finally, for the more experienced users, DApps like Uniswap have pretty, super easy to use graphical user interfaces and can be used by anyone who knows how to run and use a browser extension like Metamask.

The lack of an obvious #1 ETH killer

One of Ethereum’s biggest threats is for it to be overthrown by a so-called “Ethereum killer” blockchain which claims to do everything Ethereum can do and sometimes more. While there are competitors which are each formidable to a certain extent such as Polkadot, Cardano and EOS, each have their own weaknesses. For example, Polkadot and Cardano are not fully operational yet and EOS is much more centralised than Ethereum. As a result, none of these competitors have any significant network effects just yet relative to the behemoth which is Ethereum. This doesn’t mean that these projects aren’t a threat. In fact, I am sure that projects like Polkadot (which is more focused on complimenting Ethereum than killing it) will take a slice out of Ethereum’s pie. However, I am still very confident that Ethereum will remain on top due to the lack of a clear number 2 smart contract platform. Since none of these ETH killers stands out as the second place smart contract platform, it makes it much harder for one project to create a network effect which even begins to threaten Ethereum’s dominance. This leads me onto my next reason - network effects.

Network effects

This is another topic which I made a previous post on. The network effect is why Bitcoin is still the number one cryptocurrency and by such a long way. Bitcoin is not the most technologically advanced cryptocurrency. However, it has the most widespread name recognition and the most adoption in most metrics (ETH beats in in some metrics these days). The network effect is also why most people use Zoom and Facebook messengeWhatsApp despite the existence of free, private, end to end encrypted alternatives which have all the same features (https://meet.jit.si/ for zoom alternative and Signal for the private messenger app. I highly recommend both. Let’s get their network effects going!). It is the same for Bitcoin. People don’t want to have to learn about or set up a wallet for alternative options. People like what is familiar and what other people use. Nobody wants to be “that guy” who makes you download yet another app and account you have to remember the password/private key for. In the same way, Enterprises don’t want to have to create a bridge between their existing systems and a dozen different blockchains. Developers don’t want to have to create DeFi money legos from scratch on a new chain if they can just plug in to existing services like Uniswap. Likewise, users don’t want to have to download another browser extension to use DApps on another chain if they already use Ethereum. I know personally I have refrained from investing in altcoins because I would have to install another app on my hardware wallet or remember another recovery phrase.
Overthrowing Ethereum’s network effect is one hell of a big task these days. Time is running out for the ETH killers.

Ethereum is the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform

Ethereum is also arguably the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform (except for maybe Ethereum Classic on the neutrality part). Unlike some smart contract platforms, you can’t round up everyone at the Ethereum Foundation or any select group of people and expect to be able to stop the network. Not only this, but the Ethereum foundation doesn’t have the ability to print more ETH or push through changes as they wish like some people would lead you on to believe. The community would reject detrimental EIPs and hard fork. Ever since the DAO hack, the Ethereum community has made it clear that it will not accept EIPs which attempt to roll back the chain even to recover hacked funds (see EIP-999).
Even if governments around the world wanted to censor the Ethereum blockchain, under ETH 2.0’s proof of stake, it would be incredibly costly and would require a double digit percentage of the total ETH supply, much of which would be slashed (meaning they would lose it) as punishment for running dishonest validator nodes. This means that unlike with proof of work where a 51% attacker can keep attacking the network, under proof of stake, an attacker can only perform the attack a couple of times before they lose all of their ETH. This makes attacks much less financially viable than it is on proof of work chains. Network security is much more than what I laid out above and I am far from an expert but the improved resistance to 51% attacks which PoS provides is significant.
Finally, with the US dollar looking like it will lose its reserve currency status and the existing wire transfer system being outdated, superpowers like China won’t want to use US systems and the US won’t want to use a Chinese system. Enter Ethereum, the provably neutral settlement layer where the USA and China don’t have to trust each other or each other’s banks because they can trust Ethereum. While it may sound like a long shot, it does make sense if Ethereum hits a multi-trillion dollar market cap that it is the most secure and neutral way to transfer value between these adversaries. Not to mention if much of the world’s commerce were to be settled in the same place - on Ethereum - then it would make sense for governments to settle on the same platform.

ETH distribution is decentralised

Thanks to over 5 years of proof of work - a system where miners have to sell newly minted ETH to pay for electricity costs - newly mined ETH has found its way into the hands of everyday people who buy ETH off miners selling on exchnages. As pointed out by u/AdamSC1 in his analysis of the top 10K ETH addresses (I highly recommend reading this if you haven’t already), the distribution of ETH is actually slightly more decentralised than Bitcoin with the top 10,000 ETH wallets holding 56.70% of ETH supply compared to the top 10,000 Bitcoin wallets which hold 57.44% of the Bitcoin supply. This decentralised distribution means that the introduction of staking won’t centralise ETH in the hands of a few wallets who could then control the network. This is an advantage for ETH which many proof of stake ETH killers will never have as they never used PoW to distribute funds widely throughout the community and these ETH killers often did funding rounds giving large numbers of tokens to VC investors.

The community

Finally, while I may be biased, I think that Ethereum has the friendliest community. Anecdotally, I find that the Ethereum developer community is full of forward thinking people who want to make the world a better place and build a better future, many of whom are altruistic and don’t always act in their best interests. Compare this to the much more conservative, “at least we’re safe while the world burns” attitude which many Bitcoiners have. I don’t want to generalise too much here as the Bitcoin community is great too and there are some wonderful people there. But the difference is clear if you compare the daily discussion of Bitcoin to the incredibly helpful and welcoming daily discussion of EthFinance who will happily answer your noob questions without calling you an idiot and telling you to do you own research (there are plenty more examples in any of the daily threads). Or the very helpful folks over at EthStaker who will go out of their way to help you set up an ETH 2.0 staking node on the testnets (Shoutout to u/superphiz who does a lot of work over in that sub!). Don’t believe me? Head over to those subs and see for yourself.
Please don’t hate on me if you disagree about which project has the best community, it is just my very biased personal opinion and I respect your opinion if you disagree! :)

TL;DR:

submitted by Tricky_Troll to ethtrader [link] [comments]

A detailed summary of every reason why I am bullish on ETH.

The following will be a list of the many reasons why I hold and am extremely bullish on ETH.

This is an extremely long post. If you just want the hopium without the detail, read the TL;DR at the bottom.

ETH 2.0

As we all know, ETH 2.0 phase 0 is right around the corner. This will lock up ETH and stakers will earn interest on their ETH in return for securing the network. Next comes phase 1 where the ETH 2 shards are introduced, shards are essentially parallel blockchains which are each responsible for a different part of Ethereum’s workload, think of it like a multi-core processor vs a single core processor. During phase 1, these shards will only act as data availability layers and won’t actually process transactions yet. However, their data can be utilised by the L2 scaling solution, rollups, increasing Ethereum’s throughput in transactions per second up to 100,000 TPS.
After phase 1 comes phase 1.5 which will move the ETH 1.0 chain into an ETH 2 shard and Ethereum will be fully secured by proof of stake. This means that ETH issuance will drop from around 5% per year to less than 1% and with EIP-1559, ETH might become a deflationary asset, but more on that later.
Finally, with ETH 2.0 phase two, each shard will be fully functional chains. With 64 of them, we can expect the base layer of Ethereum to scale around 64x, not including the massive scaling which comes from layer 2 scaling solutions like rollups as previously mentioned.
While the scaling benefits and ETH issuance reduction which comes with ETH 2.0 will be massive, they aren’t the only benefits. We also get benefits such as increased security from PoS compared to PoW, a huge energy efficiency improvement due to the removal of PoW and also the addition of eWASM which will allow contracts to be programmed in a wide range of programming languages, opening the floodgates for millions of web devs who want to be involved in Ethereum but don’t know Ethereum’s programming language, Solidity.

EIP-1559 and ETH scarcity

As I covered in a previous post of mine, ETH doesn’t have a supply cap like Bitcoin. Instead, it has a monetary policy of “minimum viable issuance”, not only is this is a good thing for network security, but with the addition of EIP-1559, it leaves the door open to the possibility of ETH issuance going negative. In short, EIP-1559 changes the fee market to make transaction prices more efficient (helping to alleviate high gas fees!) by burning a variable base fee which changes based on network usage demand rather than using a highest bidder market where miners simply include who pays them the most. This will result in most of the ETH being paid in transaction fees being burned. As of late, the amount which would be burned if EIP-1559 was in Ethereum right now would make ETH a deflationary asset!

Layer 2 Scaling

In the mean time while we are waiting for ETH 2.0, layer 2 scaling is here. Right now, projects such as Deversifi or Loopring utilise rollups to scale to thousands of tx/s on their decentralised exchange platforms or HoneySwap which uses xDai to offer a more scalable alternative to UniSwap. Speaking of which, big DeFi players like UniSwap and Synthetix are actively looking into using optimistic rollups to scale while maintaining composability between DeFi platforms. The most bullish thing about L2 scaling is all of the variety of options. Here’s a non exhaustive list of Ethereum L2 scaling solutions: - Aztec protocol (L2 scaling + privacy!) - ZKSync - Loopring - Raiden - Arbitrum Rollups - xDai - OMGNetwork - Matic - FuelLabs - Starkware - Optimism - Celer Network - + Many more

DeFi and Composability

If you’re reading this, I am sure you are aware of the phenomena which is Decentralised Finance (DeFi or more accurately, open finance). Ethereum is the first platform to offer permissionless and immutable financial services which when interacting with each other, lead to unprecedented composability and innovation in financial applications. A whole new world of possibilities are opening up thanks to this composability as it allows anyone to take existing pieces of open source code from other DeFi projects, put them together like lego pieces (hence the term money legos) and create something the world has never seen before. None of this was possible before Ethereum because typically financial services are heavily regulated and FinTech is usually proprietary software, so you don’t have any open source lego bricks to build off and you have to build everything you need from scratch. That is if what you want to do is even legal for a centralised institution!
Oh, and if you think that DeFi was just a fad and the bubble has popped, guess again! Total value locked in DeFi is currently at an all time high. Don’t believe me? Find out for yourself at: https://defipulse.com

NFTs and tokeniation

NFTs or “Non-Fungible Tokens” - despite the name which may confuse a layman - are a basic concept. They are unique tokens with their own unique attributes. This allows you to create digital art, human readable names for your ETH address (see ENS names and unstoppable domains), breedable virtual collectible creatures like crypto kitties, ownable in game assets like Gods Unchained cards or best of all in my opinion, tokenised ownership of real world assets which can even be split into pieces (this doesn’t necessarily require an NFT. Fungible tokens can be/are used for some of the following use cases). This could be tokenised ownership of real estate (see RealT), tokenised ownership of stocks, bonds and other financial assets (which by the way makes them tradable 24/7 and divisible unlike through the traditional system) or even tokenised ownership of the future income of a celebrity or athlete (see when NBA Star Spencer Dinwiddie Tokenized His Own NBA Contract.

Institutional Adoption

Ethereum is by far the most widely adopted blockchain by enterprises. Ethereum’s Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA) is the largest blockchain-enterprise partnership program and Ethereum is by far the most frequently leveraged blockchain for proof of concepts and innovation in the blockchain space by enterprises. Meanwhile, there are protocols like the Baseline protocol which is a shared framework which allows enterprises to use Ethereum as a common frame of reference and a base settlement layer without having to give up privacy when settling on the public Ethereum mainnet. This framework makes adopting Ethereum much easier for other enterprises.

Institutional Investment

One of Bitcoin’s biggest things it has going for it right now is the growing institutional investment. In case you were wondering, Ethereum has this too! Grayscale offers investment in the cryptocurrency space for financial institutions and their Ethereum fund has already locked up more than 2% of the total supply of ETH. Not only this, but as businesses transact on Ethereum and better understand it, not only will they buy up ETH to pay for their transactions, but they will also realise that much like Bitcoin, Ethereum is a scarce asset. Better yet, a scarce asset which offers yield. As a result, I expect to see companies having ETH holdings become the norm just like how Bitcoin is becoming more widespread on companies’ balance sheets.

The state of global markets

With asset prices in almost every asset class at or near all-time highs and interest rates lower than ever and even negative in some cases, there really aren’t many good opportunities in the traditional financial system right now. Enter crypto - clearly the next evolution of financial services (as I explained in the section on DeFi earlier in this post), with scarce assets built in at the protocol layer, buying BTC or ETH is a lot like buying shares in TCP/IP in 1990 (that is if the underlying protocols of the internet could be invested in which they couldn’t). Best of all, major cryptos are down from their all-time highs anywhere between 35% for BTC or 70% for ETH and much more for many altcoins. This means that they can significantly appreciate in value before entering uncharted, speculative bubble territory.
While of course we could fall dramatically at any moment in the current macro financial conditions, as a longer term play, crypto is very alluring. The existing financial system has shown that it is in dire need of replacing and the potential replacement has started rearing its head in the form of crypto and DeFi.

Improvements in user onboarding and abstracting away complexity

Ethereum has started making huge leaps forward in terms of usability for the end user. We now have ENS names and unstoppable domains which allow you to send ETH to yournamehere.ETH or TrickyTroll.crypto (I don’t actually have that domain, that’s just an example). No longer do you have to check every character of your ugly hexadecimal 0x43AB96D… ETH address to ensure you’re sending your ETH to the right person. We also have smart contract wallets like Argent wallet or the Gnosis safe. These allow for users to access their wallets and interact with DeFi self-custodially from an app on their phone without having to record a private key or recovery phrase. Instead, they offer social recovery and their UI is straight forward enough for anyone who uses a smart phone to understand. Finally, for the more experienced users, DApps like Uniswap have pretty, super easy to use graphical user interfaces and can be used by anyone who knows how to run and use a browser extension like Metamask.

The lack of an obvious #1 ETH killer

One of Ethereum’s biggest threats is for it to be overthrown by a so-called “Ethereum killer” blockchain which claims to do everything Ethereum can do and sometimes more. While there are competitors which are each formidable to a certain extent such as Polkadot, Cardano and EOS, each have their own weaknesses. For example, Polkadot and Cardano are not fully operational yet and EOS is much more centralised than Ethereum. As a result, none of these competitors have any significant network effects just yet relative to the behemoth which is Ethereum. This doesn’t mean that these projects aren’t a threat. In fact, I am sure that projects like Polkadot (which is more focused on complimenting Ethereum than killing it) will take a slice out of Ethereum’s pie. However, I am still very confident that Ethereum will remain on top due to the lack of a clear number 2 smart contract platform. Since none of these ETH killers stands out as the second place smart contract platform, it makes it much harder for one project to create a network effect which even begins to threaten Ethereum’s dominance. This leads me onto my next reason - network effects.

Network effects

This is another topic which I made a previous post on. The network effect is why Bitcoin is still the number one cryptocurrency and by such a long way. Bitcoin is not the most technologically advanced cryptocurrency. However, it has the most widespread name recognition and the most adoption in most metrics (ETH beats in in some metrics these days). The network effect is also why most people use Zoom and Facebook messengeWhatsApp despite the existence of free, private, end to end encrypted alternatives which have all the same features (https://meet.jit.si/ for zoom alternative and Signal for the private messenger app. I highly recommend both. Let’s get their network effects going!). It is the same for Bitcoin. People don’t want to have to learn about or set up a wallet for alternative options. People like what is familiar and what other people use. Nobody wants to be “that guy” who makes you download yet another app and account you have to remember the password/private key for. In the same way, Enterprises don’t want to have to create a bridge between their existing systems and a dozen different blockchains. Developers don’t want to have to create DeFi money legos from scratch on a new chain if they can just plug in to existing services like Uniswap. Likewise, users don’t want to have to download another browser extension to use DApps on another chain if they already use Ethereum. I know personally I have refrained from investing in altcoins because I would have to install another app on my hardware wallet or remember another recovery phrase.
Overthrowing Ethereum’s network effect is one hell of a big task these days. Time is running out for the ETH killers.

Ethereum is the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform

Ethereum is also arguably the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform (except for maybe Ethereum Classic on the neutrality part). Unlike some smart contract platforms, you can’t round up everyone at the Ethereum Foundation or any select group of people and expect to be able to stop the network. Not only this, but the Ethereum foundation doesn’t have the ability to print more ETH or push through changes as they wish like some people would lead you on to believe. The community would reject detrimental EIPs and hard fork. Ever since the DAO hack, the Ethereum community has made it clear that it will not accept EIPs which attempt to roll back the chain even to recover hacked funds (see EIP-999).
Even if governments around the world wanted to censor the Ethereum blockchain, under ETH 2.0’s proof of stake, it would be incredibly costly and would require a double digit percentage of the total ETH supply, much of which would be slashed (meaning they would lose it) as punishment for running dishonest validator nodes. This means that unlike with proof of work where a 51% attacker can keep attacking the network, under proof of stake, an attacker can only perform the attack a couple of times before they lose all of their ETH. This makes attacks much less financially viable than it is on proof of work chains. Network security is much more than what I laid out above and I am far from an expert but the improved resistance to 51% attacks which PoS provides is significant.
Finally, with the US dollar looking like it will lose its reserve currency status and the existing wire transfer system being outdated, superpowers like China won’t want to use US systems and the US won’t want to use a Chinese system. Enter Ethereum, the provably neutral settlement layer where the USA and China don’t have to trust each other or each other’s banks because they can trust Ethereum. While it may sound like a long shot, it does make sense if Ethereum hits a multi-trillion dollar market cap that it is the most secure and neutral way to transfer value between these adversaries. Not to mention if much of the world’s commerce were to be settled in the same place - on Ethereum - then it would make sense for governments to settle on the same platform.

ETH distribution is decentralised

Thanks to over 5 years of proof of work - a system where miners have to sell newly minted ETH to pay for electricity costs - newly mined ETH has found its way into the hands of everyday people who buy ETH off miners selling on exchnages. As pointed out by u/AdamSC1 in his analysis of the top 10K ETH addresses (I highly recommend reading this if you haven’t already), the distribution of ETH is actually slightly more decentralised than Bitcoin with the top 10,000 ETH wallets holding 56.70% of ETH supply compared to the top 10,000 Bitcoin wallets which hold 57.44% of the Bitcoin supply. This decentralised distribution means that the introduction of staking won’t centralise ETH in the hands of a few wallets who could then control the network. This is an advantage for ETH which many proof of stake ETH killers will never have as they never used PoW to distribute funds widely throughout the community and these ETH killers often did funding rounds giving large numbers of tokens to VC investors.

The community

Finally, while I may be biased, I think that Ethereum has the friendliest community. Anecdotally, I find that the Ethereum developer community is full of forward thinking people who want to make the world a better place and build a better future, many of whom are altruistic and don’t always act in their best interests. Compare this to the much more conservative, “at least we’re safe while the world burns” attitude which many Bitcoiners have. I don’t want to generalise too much here as the Bitcoin community is great too and there are some wonderful people there. But the difference is clear if you compare the daily discussion of Bitcoin to the incredibly helpful and welcoming daily discussion of EthFinance who will happily answer your noob questions without calling you an idiot and telling you to do you own research (there are plenty more examples in any of the daily threads). Or the very helpful folks over at EthStaker who will go out of their way to help you set up an ETH 2.0 staking node on the testnets (Shoutout to u/superphiz who does a lot of work over in that sub!). Don’t believe me? Head over to those subs and see for yourself.
Please don’t hate on me if you disagree about which project has the best community, it is just my very biased personal opinion and I respect your opinion if you disagree! :)

TL;DR:

submitted by Tricky_Troll to ethfinance [link] [comments]

Fidelity Digital Investments: Bitcoin As an Aspirational Store of Value System

Interesting thesis from Fidelity's Digital Assets research head where they examine the factors that make bitcoin appealing as a potential store of value. I've highlighted some of the key points but I suggest people read the entire report.
In this piece, we will focus on the view that Bitcoin is an aspirational store of value. We explore the inherent characteristics that position Bitcoin to fulfill this role in the future, consider whether it is being used in this way today, and discuss factors that may drive greater demand for such utility.
Bitcoin’s digital scarcity
A robust store of value asset retains purchasing power over long periods of time. An emerging store of value grows purchasing power until it stabilizes. The key characteristics that are cited in reference to good stores of value are scarcity, portability, durability and divisibility. The most important of these attributes is arguably scarcity, which is essential for protecting against the depreciation of real value in the long run. Scarcity means there is a limited quantity of the asset in question, more cannot be easily created, and it is impossible to counterfeit.
One of bitcoin’s most novel innovations is its unforgeable digital scarcity. Investors believe this property is foundational in understanding and appreciating bitcoin.
The bitcoin supply is perfectly inelastic and is not susceptible to supply shocks. Supply does not respond to changes in production capacity (i.e. greater hash power) in response to heightened demand driving prices higher. Even gold, which has been used as a store of value for millennia, is not immune to supply shocks. While the ability for increased production in response to an increase in demand is limited, gold is not perfectly inelastic.
Decentralized checks and balances
Bitcoin’s monetary policy was established when it was created. Its credibility is enforced in part by decentralization and proof-of-work mining. Bitcoin has a leaderless network of decentralized full nodes (computers running bitcoin software), in which every node stores the ledger of transactions and performs transaction verification independently, checking that rules are being followed. Because of this redundancy, there is no central point of failure. Full nodes that verify transactions are distinct from miners who expend energy to process transactions and mint bitcoin. Unlike mining, transaction verification does not require significant resources in the form of hardware or electricity. Thus, any computer can join the distributed network to store and verify bitcoin transactions. Today tens of thousands of nodes perform this function.
In addition to preventing transactions that don’t follow consensus rules, the level of decentralization that exists in the bitcoin network protects core properties such as the 21 million fixed supply by making it virtually impossible to change. No central party has sole discretion over bitcoin’s monetary policy. Rather, such a change would require significant social coordination among stakeholders (e.g. users, miners and those running full nodes). Most stakeholders believe bitcoin has value because of its digital scarcity, resulting in negligible support for such a change
DEMAND DRIVERS
Investors believe that the next wave of awareness and adoption could be driven by external factors such as unprecedented levels of intervention by central banks and governments, record low interest rates, increasing fiat money supply, deglobalization and the potential for ensuing inflation, all of which have been accelerated by the pandemic and economic shutdown. Longer-term tailwinds that could fuel adoption include the use of bitcoin to preserve wealth amidst “slow and steady” inflation and the looming generational wealth transfer to millennials, who view bitcoin more favorably than other demographics.
Current interest in bitcoin’s store of value properties
Tudor Investment Corporation’s decision to allocate to bitcoin in the Tudor BVI fund is evidence that unprecedented levels of monetary growth is driving institutional interest in bitcoin’s store of value properties. Paul Tudor Jones, founder and Chief Investment Officer, and Lorenzo Giorgianni, Head of Global Research articulated the rationale for investing in bitcoin in their May 2020 investor letter, “The Great Monetary Inflation.” The Tudor Investments team scored financial assets, fiat cash, gold and bitcoin based on four characteristics that define store of value assets – purchasing power, trustworthiness, liquidity, portability. Bitcoin’s score was 60% of the score of financial assets, but 1/1200th of the market cap of financial assets and it was 66% of the score of gold, but 1/60th of the market cap, concluding, “Something appears to be wrong here and my guess is that it’s the price of Bitcoin.” While many have expressed the same reasoning, this was seen as a watershed moment, given the thesis and investment was from a traditional hedge fund manage legendary macro investor (Paul Tudor Jones) and former Deputy Director of the Strategy, Policy and Review Department at the IMF (Lorenzo Giorgianni)ix.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s inherent properties have given rise to the perspective that bitcoin has the potential to be a store of value, with complementary and interdependent components – the decentralized settlement network (Bitcoin) and its digitally scarce native asset (bitcoin). Equally important is the consideration of demand for bitcoin’s unique features – there is no long-term value to create or store if there is no sustained demand for these properties.
External forces that are accelerating interest and investment in bitcoin include unprecedented levels and exotic forms of monetary and fiscal stimulus globally with unknown consequences. This is exacerbating the concerns that Bitcoin was designed to address and is leading more investors and users towards bitcoin as an “insurance policy” that may provide protection against the unknown consequences. Simultaneously, the massive transfer of wealth from the older generation to a younger demographic is a more gradual but important long-term tailwind, as younger people view bitcoin more favorably. This is an important catalyst for bitcoin adoption as they inherit and grow their wealth. While bitcoin is not guaranteed to succeed as a store of value, should sustainable long-term demand for the use case not materialize, the tailwinds mentioned above should drive incremental demand for a novel asset with unique properties. Additionally, as we will examine in future parts in our bitcoin investment thesis series, Bitcoin’s strength is that it has properties that allow it to serve multiple functions, further hardening the likelihood of its success as measured by growth in value.
submitted by Tiaan to investing [link] [comments]

End of day summary - 09/11

The Dow rose 131.06, or 0.48%, to 27,665.64, the Nasdaq lost 66.05, or 0.60%, to 10,853.55, and the S&P 500 advanced 1.78, or 0.05%, to 3,340.97.
Traders at /thewallstreet cheered as volatility returned to the stock market.
The major averages finished Friday's trading in mixed fashion, as dip buyers provided support for the Dow and the continued tech selloff made the Nasdaq the laggard once again. The chances for another round of fiscal stimulus ahead of the election were hurt yesterday after Democrats stopped the passage of the "skinny" GOP package, but the U.S. economy looks poised for a strong rebound in Q3, corporate earnings continue to largely overshoot pessimistic forecasts and the Fed remains "all in," leaving investors to mull the cross-currents.
Similar to the days before, today's price action was technically-oriented given the absence of market-moving news and the losses in stocks like AAPL, -1.3%, AMZN, -1.9%, and MSFT, -0.7% on no specific corporate news. Apple shares fell 7.4% this week.
The difference today was that their losses were offset by relative strength in the cyclical sectors, namely industrials (+1.4%), materials (+1.3%), and financials (+0.8%). Still, when Apple and Amazon are down more than 1.0%, there must be more winners than losers to make a meaningful difference.
There were more of the latter on Friday, as declining issues outpaced advancing issues at the NYSE and Nasdaq. The information technology (-0.8%), consumer discretionary (-0.3%), and communication services (-0.3%) sectors ended the day in negative territory due to their exposure to the mega-cap stocks.
Interestingly, the S&P 500 was down as much as 0.9% intraday and fell below its 50-day moving average (3322). A broad rebound in the afternoon, however, helped the benchmark index turn positive and close above the key technical level.
In TikTok news, President Trump said that the deadline established for China's ByteDance to sell video-sharing service TikTok's U.S. operations would not be extended, Reuters reported. "It'll either be closed up or they'll sell it," the president told reporters, adding, "There will be no extension of the TikTok deadline." MSFT in partnership with WMT and Oracle have been seen as the leading suitors to purchase TikTok's operations in the U.S., Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
Subsequently, Reuters reported that Chinese officials are so opposed to a forced sale of TikTok's U.S. operations that they would prefer to see the app shut down in the U.S. over that conclusion. Reuters noted that China was willing, if needed, to use revisions it made to a technology exports list on Aug. 28 to delay any deal reached by ByteDance.
Electric vehicle hopeful NKLA continued its fight this morning with a short-seller, which now appears to be "short-sellers." Nikola issued a statement in response to claims made about the company by activist short-seller Hindenburg Research yesterday, calling the firm's report "a hit job for short sale profit driven by greed." Nikola, which added that it has "nothing to hide and we will refute these allegations," announced that it has retained law firm Kirkland & Ellis to evaluate potential legal recourse and intends to bring the actions of the short-seller, together with evidence and documentation, to the attention of the SEC. Following the company's press release regarding the response, Andrew Left's Citron Research said via Twitter, "Congrats to Hindenburg for exposing what appears to be a total fraud with $NKLA. Citron will cover half of all legal expenses. You can't SLAPP the truth away. Explains why Milton sold at $10 this June $NKLA response warrants an SEC investigation to maintain integrity of EV mkt." After having dropped 11% on Thursday, Nikola shares fell a further 14.5%.
Meanwhile, CNBC reported that AAPL has updated its App Store guidelines ahead of the release of iOS 14, with one major revision relating to game streaming services. The tech giant said in its revised guidelines that services such as Google Stadia (GOOG) and Microsoft xCloud are explicitly permitted, though under the condition that games offered in the service must be downloaded directly from the App Store, not from an all-in-one app.
Among the noteworthy gainers was Shares of ORCL, which was in focus after the company reported what Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow called a "surprisingly strong beat" and growth on licenses despite the continued macro uncertainty. NOG, which rose 1.3% after acquiring interests in the Delaware Basin and raising Q3 production guidance. Also higher was CX, which gained 8.3% in New York after Morgan Stanley analyst Nikolaj Lippmann upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight.
Among the notable losers was AMRS, which dropped 25.8% after responding to a lawsuit filed by Lavvan against the company for patent infringement and trade secret misappropriation. Also lower was CHWY, which declined 9.8% after reporting some cats have tried to take over the company with whiteclaws.
Despite a blowout fiscal Q4 report, PTON were 4.2% lower following last night's from the fitness products and services provider.
Elsewhere stocks were higher, with the Shanghai composite up 0.79% to around 3,260.35 while the Shenzhen component rose 1.57% to about 12,942.95. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index advanced 0.78% to end its trading day at 24,503.31.

Currency

The U.S. Dollar Index (93.35, +0.01, unch) reclaimed its overnight loss, gaining 0.7% for the week.

Treasury

U.S. Treasuries ended the abbreviated week with modest gains across the curve. The cash session started with some light selling for the second day in a row, but the market recovered from the early dip with ease.

Commodity

Gold slipped on Friday on a lack of further stimulus from the European Central Bank and the U.S. government, but for the week the safe-haven metal was set to end higher. Crude remained on track for a second weekly drop as investors expected a global glut to persist if demand weakens further with rising COVID-19 cases in some countries.

Crypto

Bitcoin is struggling to gather upside traction despite repeated defense of support at $10,000. The top cryptocurrency’s sell-off from the August high of $12,476 looks to have come to a halt near $10,000 over the past seven days.

YTD

  • FAAMG + some penny stocks +21.0% YTD
  • Spoos +3.4% YTD
  • Old man -3.1% YTD
  • Russy -10.3% YTD

CPI

Total CPI increased 0.4% m/m while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose 0.4%. Those gains left total CPI up 1.3% yyr and core CPI up 1.7% yyr.
The key takeaway from the report, which featured the largest increase in the index for used cars and trucks (+5.4%) since March 1969, is that the increase in the all items index was broad-based; nonetheless, annual inflation rates are still running well below 2.0%, so there is still more noise than bothersome policy signal in the August report.

IPO (Most Anticipated)

Week of Sep14-18
  • Company: AMWL Amwell (NYSE) | Leading telehealth company enabling digital delivery of care for healthcare’s key stakeholders | Initial Shares: 35.0 M | Initial Range: $14.00-16.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Piper Jaffray, UBS, Credit Suisse, Cowen
  • Company: BNL Broadstone Net Lease | REIT that acquires, owns, and manages primarily single-tenant commercial real estate properties | Initial Shares: 33.5 M | Initial Range: $17.00-19.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, BMO Capital Markets, Morgan Stanley, Capital One Securities, Truist Securities
  • Company: FROG JFrog (Nasdaq) | Developer of an end-to-end, hybrid, universal DevOps platform | Initial Shares: 11.6 M | Initial Range: $33.00 -37.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, BofA Securities
  • Company: SNOW Snowflake (NYSE) | Developer of a data cloud platform that enables customers to consolidate data into a single source to drive business insights | Initial Shares: 28.0 M | Initial Range: $75.00-85.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Allen & Co, Citigroup
  • Company: STEP StepStone Group (Nasdaq) | Global private markets investment firm | Initial Shares: 17.5 M | Initial Range: $15.00-17.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, UBS Investment Bank
  • Company: SUMO Sumo Logic (Nasdaq) | Pioneer of Continuous Intelligence, a new category of software, which enables organizations to address opportunities presented by digital transformation and cloud computing | Initial Shares: 14.8 M | Initial Range: $17.00-21.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, RBC Capital, Jefferies
  • Company: U Unity Software (NYSE) | Leading platform for creating and operating interactive, real-time 3D content | Initial Shares: 25.0 M | Initial Range: $34.00-42.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, BofA, Barclays, William Blair
Week of Sep21-25
  • Company: PLTR Palantir Technologies (NYSE) | Software developer for defense, intelligence agencies, law enforcement, and commercial enterprises | Initial Shares: 244.2 | Initial Range: NA | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: Direct Listing

What's next?

Beer o'clock
Summary scraped from the interweb. Took 0.41 seconds.
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Your Pre Market Brief for 07/23/2020

Pre Market Brief for Thursday July 23rd 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Updated as of 3:30 AM EST
-----------------------------------------------
Stock Futures:
Wednesday 07/22/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Thursday July 23rd 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are Eastern)
(JOBLESS NUMBERS TODAY)
News Heading into Thursday July 23rd 2020
NOTE: PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH. THE TIME STAMPS ON THE FOLLOWING ARTICLES MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB. THE CREATOR OF THIS THREAD COMPILED THE FOLLOWING IN A QUICK MANNER AND DOES NOT ATTEST TO THE VERACITY OF THE INFORMATION BELOW. YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR VETTING YOUR OWN SOURCES AND DOING YOUR OWN DD.
Upcoming Earnings:
Commodities:
COVID-19 Stats and News:
Macro Considerations:
Most Recent SEC Filings
Other
-----------------------------------------------
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
Other Useful Resources:
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
It is up to you to judge the accuracy and veracity of these headlines before trading.
submitted by Cicero1982 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Mine Digital's Q3 Report, 2020

Orginal post: https://minedigital.exchange/the-byzantine-times/mine-digital-q3-report/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=new_visitors&utm_term=quarterly

Data

There has been a lot of talk recently over deflation vs inflation and which phenomenon is going to emerge.
The traditional path of inflation is that it first shows up in soft commodities then energy.
Indeed, the data for Q3 shows inflation, with soft commodities up from mid single digits all the way to 40% higher of the quarter (with the exception of Orange Juice and Oats which were marginally lower).
Although energy is yet to show signs of that inflation, with significant overcapacity in oil suppressing prices (especially with the lack of air travel with the coronavirus), natural gas is higher by almost 46% over the quarter — obviously a significant amount.
While this is a result of the initial response to coronavirus stimulus from March onwards, there is now a threat of deflation emerging — however further policy response is expected imminently.

US Election

With the US election underway we saw the first presidential debate recently. The event was slow with Joe Biden performing better than expected — by not being a disaster — and President Trumps strategy of freestyle, interruption and flow being handled well with superior tactics.
Those tactics include the promise of a return of technocratic stability to the governance of the country — an approach complementary to unofficial policy supporting the corporate funded, professionally organised riots of 2020.
There was a swing towards Biden in gambling books, with about an 8% improvement in odds given to a Democrat win.
If Democrats do win, we expect that the policy mechanism of the US Government will include the expansion of fiscal and monetary policy to include an infrastructure spend and a continuation of the trend in monetary policy
However if Republicans win, we expect that the policy mechanism of the US Government will include the expansion of fiscal and monetary policy to include an infrastructure spend and a continuation of the trend in monetary policy.
This delusion of choice in the United States creates an image similar to China with both countries now having essentially a centrally planned economy at the highest level, both developed a mass surveillance program, have media synchronised to political objectives controlling the window of discourse, and with heavy politically influence from what amounts to an aristocracy.
One major difference is that while China has been taking on debt at a record pace in 2020, the American fiscal stimulus has been held up in the democratic process. Between the fake trade-deal (China never having any intention of completing it), Coronavirus and political fandangaling in the US, China has stolen 2020 from the USA, giving some much needed time to develop strategy and tactical positioning before the Thucydides showdown emerges later down the track — in whatever form it does.
The broader battle of de-centralisation vs centralisation will be important in the competition between the two powers and something that digital assets, the ethos and philosophy behind the space will become more important in creating competitive advantages in macro-strategy of all kinds.

Australian Policy

Now that we have seen Australian house prices down for 5 months in a row there are hints of a dead-cat bounce in the Australian property market. With restricted access to Chinese investors as well as poor sentiment in the conditions of the year the Australian government is expected to intervene in the property market in some way later this year or early next.
A federal budget is being delivered Tuesday the 6th October which has been described as a ‘jobs budget’. This budget is expected to have a $200 billion deficit with Australian national debt edging towards $1 trillion. $140 billion of stimulus is expected over the next four years with net migration negative for the first time since the 1940's.
There is specific infrastructure and manufacturing expenditure as well as a continuation of JobSeeker payments in which the government is in a bind between encouraging re-entry to the workforce and providing a gentle landing for the unemployed adjusting to the boosted payments. Housing is likely to be one area where surprises would emerge, given Australia’s dependency on residential construction and broader housing prices.
Some specific areas of interest are $1.5 billion to manufacturing and $7.5 billion of spending in infrastructure projects covering all states and territories.
Whether this will be enough to avoid recession in a global slowdown remains to be seen. Recessions gather momentum slowly with employment decreasing only gradually before accelerated layoffs take hold.
Despite this outlook Australia is likely to remain a benefactor of global government policies where monetary policy has been taken as far as it can go in many places and fiscal policy is expected to replace it. There is upto $2.2 trillion of fiscal expenditure in the US expected, along with other fiscal expenditure that would improve the price of commodities. We have already seen this effect in China this year with their record increases in debt on the iron ore price.

Digital Assets

In the third quarter of 2020 we saw Decentralised Finance projects stage a bubble of their own.
This gold-rush became so competitive at its peak that a project had been unnannounced, unreleased and in testing but was funded with $15mil of assets staked before it had a public name.
Now in the late stages of this phenomenon we are likely to see many lessons learnt, some impressive winning stories and some disastrous losses.
And the output of all of this chaos in defi includes projects that create a new aspect to the digital asset ecosystem as well as testing new products and game theory.
Leading projects include yearn.finance, Synthetix, Uniswap, Compound, Ren and Aave. Some notable game-theory has been developed to bolt onto the Ampleforth tokenomics in Yam and Based amongst others.

Ethereum

One of the key takeaways of the de-fi boom was the inability of Ethereum to handle transactions with costs per transaction skyrocketing. In addition to this there has been statements made by Vitalik to temper expectations in the full release of Ethereum 2.0. However the comments also include a clear direction for the asset, a focus on rollups, plasma and state channel with upto 4000 TPS (transactions per second)’ and upto 100,000 TPS in the full release of Ethereum 2.0.

Bitcoin

Although it has traded higher over the time-frame, bitcoin has not done a great deal in Q3. With a major announcement from Microstrategy investing their entire treasury into Bitcoin ($425 million USD) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($4.4 billion USD) holding about 2.2% of Bitcoins total market cap and reports from other institutional players such as OSL there is significant interest in the asset that is not translating smoothly into higher prices.
Originally published at https://minedigital.exchange on October 5, 2020. Visit the original link for a more in-depth report including charts.
submitted by Uncle_Chester2020 to Mine_Digital_Exchange [link] [comments]

Current state of MapHack in Starcraft II [2019]

Current state of MapHack in Starcraft II [2019]
Disclaimer :
This thread Is not an advertisement for maphack. This was only made In order to gather as much informations as possible about the current state of this type of hack in Starcraft 2 so people can be more aware of this problem.Most of people think maphack is dead/only present at high level or is just a « reveal the map » hack, but it’s much more complicated than that. I hope It will help to rise awarness about this, and make blizzard do something about it. I’m keeping an eye on hack communities of my differents games for years, and i recently wanted to see what changed about the MH part in SC2 since the last time i checked (2016). It took me 2 month to have all the informations I wanted, and here is the result :)
Also, no name/direct access to the hack will be revealed in public, for 2 mains reasons :
- 99% chances they are not using their real name/game tag, so it’s useless I think.- It could help some people to find them and then buy the hack.
Blizzard probably already know about this (specially the last one i will talk about), but If you can prove me in PM that you are from blizzard staff I’ll of course share you the uncensored pictures + other screens that I can’t post here.
Also, english is not my native language, so there will be mistakes in the thread and the video, feel free to correct me :)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
I’ll talk about 2 differents hack I found, one seems to be the most populapowerful hack tool for a long time, the other one have less feature but still work great.I’m also pretty sure there is a third one, but i couldn’t find after a month of research.
1) Generalities
To begin with, MH is not that simple to find.
I remember in 2014/2015, it was pretty easy to find one by just googling « SC2 maphack ».Some of them were free to use, best ones (better UI + other features) were pretty expensives like ValiantChaos’s maphack (one of the most famous at the time).
Then around 2015/2016 (can’t remember exactly), a big update of Warden, the Blizzard anti cheat system, stopped most of them. It was impossible to find one for free, and it was very rare to play against it on the ladder. Since this update, if you really want one you now require to pay a monthly fee to the hacker in order to use his sofware and have the new versions each time an official patch is published by blizzard.It’s also a lot harder to find them, and unless you know the right place to get this type of hack (not specifically for SC2, but for hacks in general) it’s very unlikely you’ll be able to find what you want (or you’ll be scammed with a fake MH, it happens very often from what i can read in this community).
2) First hack
The first one took me a week to find. He offered a free trial of 3 days, that allowed me to see everything that can be done with this software .Once the trial is over, you are supposed to send back a document included in the folder, and the hacker is supposed to send you back a new version of the software, this time linked to your PC (i guess the software creates a specific signature of your PC, maybe linked to your motherboard).
Here are some screens of the hack interface: https://imgur.com/a/HkyqMpP

Ingame Overlay
I used it on a throwaway account for 48h, then deleted it.
Here is a commentated gameplay with it (it’s impossible to reccord the ingame overlay no matter what i tried with OBS, so i can’t really show it in action) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9kx-F_Mu4E&feature=youtu.be
TLDW :
It include some basics feature :
- Sound alert for macro (upcoming supply block, probe production stopped…) or enemy army (drop, big move out… .
- Second minimap with unit movement and building placement.
- Production tab.- Energy left for scans/chronos….
It’s a bit disturbing at first to have another overlay to look at, just like in gold league when it’s hard to check frequently the minimap, but it’s obvioulsy worth it.
Also, in the video someone spotted me, I PMed him after i stopped reccording to tell him what i was doing, i’ll link him this thread so hello to you buddy if you see this ^^
I used it for 4-5 games at low mmr (at low mmr, my macro was good enough so i could talk and properly expain without losing because of macro errors) in the videos just in order to explain how it’s used, but after that i used another account to test how far I could go with this.The 2nd account was with my real mmr (4k7, i'm very stable usually, rarely drop below 4k6), and i’ve done 15 games with it. I wanted to know how big the impact was, maybe you just get out macro very quickly after all.I managed to reach 5k mmr (my peak mmr was 4800 with my main account) with a 14-1 ratio, the only lose being due to a Zerg late game with mass infestors broolords.I feel like i could have reach much higher, but i prefered to stop here since it was enough.
This is indeed a very strong tool, that allows people who know how the game works (counter, strategy, build analysis) to stop loosing to anything linked to harass/scout. You can only lose due to micro error during fight or a big out macro.However, the maphack feature itself is pretty useless if you don’t undestand well enough the game of course, i think below mid/high diamond it’s 100% useless.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
3) Second hack
During my research, I also heard about 2 other maphack.
I never found enough informations about the first one, but the second one was very interesting.It seems like it’s the most popular and avanced hack tool for SC2, I think you can’t even call this a maphack anymore since it’s just a small feature in this one.
This one was a bit harder to find, and the person selling it seems to have a very well organised marketplace (honestly impressed by all his system).
Screen of his Discord, including detailes features of the hack : https://imgur.com/a/AozxjtK

![img](6ngslja3udj31 "166 peoples on it, a bit bigger than i expected tbh. ")
Prices : similar to the first hack I found.
![img](ia97d55xudj31 " Payement : much more different this time. The first hacker gave me a PayPal link, but this one want to be payed in Bitcoin !")
To obtain the hack, once you sent the bitcoint to his wallet, the bot will check and send you a license key to unlock the hack (you can dowload it in a specific channel on his discord, once you have the « Free trial » or « member » role). This time you don’t have to send back a document to link kit to your PC, you only need a license key.The trial last for 72h this time.
Screen of differents features of the hack when you unlock the software with a license key, including auto creep spread example : https://imgur.com/a/dJW49A3

Aside form the production tab and economy informations, the new ingame UI is interesting
Since i didn’t want to play again with something like that in ladder, I asked one my friend to test it in custom games with me.
Replays :
Auto Blink PvP : https://drop.sc/replay/11541493
AOE dodge TvP : https://drop.sc/replay/11541495
ZvP with various hack activated, such as auto creep spread, auto inject and auto AOE dodge : https://drop.sc/replay/11541492I'm 3k9-4k Z, he's 4k5-4k6 P.
ZvZ split hack, game lagged pretty hard for both of us during apm peak (over 6k5 apm sometimes) : https://drop.sc/replay/11541494Split hack is the most obvious of all, since it need a very big apm to work

15mn game, guess which I am ?
Auto split typical APM
Each time an official patch is out, the hack is patched as well, most of the time very quickly after the official releasehttps://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Patches for comparison
https://preview.redd.it/pmn48t0yydj31.png?width=871&format=png&auto=webp&s=388d3105cb69664a92afb4afac09fe8d03f4132f

As you can see, you can hardly just call that a maphack. It help a lot with auto split, and change pretty much everything as a Zerg since auto creep spread and auto inject are very effective.There are a lot of features i can't show because there are too much of them, but most of them are macro help. For example, if you select 12 workers and right click a gas, 3 of them will automatically mine vespene gas and the other ones wont stop what they are doing.Terran also become very weak since you can prevent any form of harassEtc...
I only found these 2 hacks in 1 month, but there are probably a lot more in specific community such as Russian or KR community.For both hack, i found at least 250 people using them, most of them between 4k8-5k5, and some of them seems to be GM on EU/NA or KR :
Profile picture of one of the people i found in the second hack servor
This hack is very scary, because this is clearly a very well organised and powerful machine.Just imagine a tool like this in the hands of some low/mid gm players, they could easily qualify for WCS for example since qualifiers are online (not saying it happened in the past, maybe it did, i'm just saying it could happen).I have no idea of how the owner of this could be punished since it would be very hard to find any personnal informations about him
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
This conclude this thread, I hope you enjoyed it :)
I problably forgot some details, so ask your questions in the comments and I'll try to answer them if I can (you can ask in french if you want).Again, It's just in order for most people to know about the current state of this : It's not that rare and It's much more developped than just a maphack.
I hope you'll play a healthy ladder, but if you meet one of them don't forget to still report them :)
submitted by NeWHoriiZonS to starcraft [link] [comments]

For Trading May 7th

For Trading MAY 7th
Split Market -NAZ Up, DOW Down
Earnings Galore
Today’s market was a split affair from right after the open. While the NASDAQ was higher, the DJIA and S&P 500 were sloppy at best. While the NASDAQ has regained its entire loss for 2020 (not the highs, but since 1/2/2020), the DJIA is still -5054 or 17.5% and the S&P 500 is -392 or 12%. At the highs today the DJIA was +171 and finished on the lows -218.45 (.91%), NASDAQ +45.27 (.51%), S&P 500 -20.02 (.70%), the Russell -10.50 (.82%) and the DJ Transports -115.47 (1.43%). Market internals were weak with NYSE 2:1 down and NASDAQ 1.5:1 down. Volume was also light. On the DJIA we were decidedly down with 23 lower, 6 higher and PFE unchanged. The gainers were AAPL +21 and MSFT +12 DPs while on the downside we had UNH -29 and BA & TRV -24 DPs. Sectors on the upside included Info tech and consumer discretionary while Financial, Utilities and Energy the weak groups.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/RQTFwMS1vZk
SECTORS: Earnings played a part in today’s market again. PTON was higher by 1.81 before the numbers and after the beat the stock traded as high as $42.40 and settled $41.76 + 3.73. WYNN missed top and bottom lines with the slower than expected attendance in Macau and the stock, already down from a recovery high of $152 to close the day $79.25 -.42 fell to $76.50 before a $77.40 close -1.85. ETSY was also a disappointment after closing at a new all-time high at $78.24 +5.45 (7.49%) and after hitting $84.01 fell back to $69.11 and finished $74.05 – 4.19.
But the award for the day goes to the analysts who both downgraded Macro-Genics (MGNX) and lowered their price objectives to $13 from $17 (Credit Suisse) and $15 from $16 at SVB Leerink, only to have the stock report and then be halted for volatility several times on its way from last nights close of $7.60 to $27.34 and closed $25.15 +17.55 (230.92%)…GOOD CALL…Got your resume up to date??
FOOD SUPPLY: was MIXED with TSN -2.29, BGS +1.68 (8.6%), FLO -.62, CAG +.38, MDLZ -.18, KHC +.33, CALM +.12, JJSF -6.05, SAFM +.89, and LANC -.83.
BIOPHARMA: was MIXED with BIIB +2.34, ABBV -.05, REGN -19.37, ISRG -.86, GILD -1.89, MYL +.29, TEVA +.51, VRTX -2.27, BHC +.54, INCY -2.74, ICPT +8.65 (10.77%), LABU +.46 and IBB $127.00 +.02 (.02%).
CANNABIS: This group was LOWER with TLRY -.05, CGC -.41, CRON -.18, GWPH +2.48, ACB -.01, PYX +.16, NBEV +.02, CURLF -.09, KERN -.10 and MJ $11.50 -.35 (2.95%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -11.85, GD -4.40, TXT -.30, NOC -5.71, BWXT +1.53, RTX -1.35, and ITA $144.00 -3.45 (2.34%).
RETAIL was LOWER with M -.18, JWN -.14, KSS -.52, DDS -.20, JCP -.023, WMT -1.77, TGT +1.73, TJX -.49, RL -1.19, UAA -.13, LULU +4.80, TPR -.70, CPRI -.45 and XRT $36.31 +.10 (.28%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL -3.59, AMZN +27.30, AAPL +2.44, FB +.94, NFLX +11.04, NVDA +3.26, TSLA +11.39, BABA +.38, BIDU +.75, CMG -4.23, CAT -1.45, BA -3.70, DIS -.25 and XLK $92.03 +.71 (.78%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -2.10, JPM -1.97, BAC -.38, MS -.73, C -1.12, PNC -1.27, AIG -1.75, TRV -3.56, AXP -2.75, V -.33 and XLF 21.32 -.47 (2.16%).
OIL, $25.62 -.87. Oil was higher over-night and the rally continued early in the day to a new recovery high of $27.98 before falling back and closing down on the day. The stocks were lower across the board with the XLE $36.15 -.97 (2.61%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,688.50 -22.10. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1788 last Wednesday. We were stopped out of our position in the 5/15 163 calls on the 50% Down Rule. We are also long NEM.
BITCOIN: closed $9340 +355. After breaking out over $7500 we have consolidated and broken over 8,000 and 8,500 and again consolidated. Today’s close is the highest since BTC broke down in early March at $9385 and 9390. $10,000-10,250 seems like the next stop. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $10.76 +.73 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to pennystocks [link] [comments]

For Trading May 7th

For Trading MAY 7th
Split Market -NAZ Up, DOW Down
Earnings Galore
Today’s market was a split affair from right after the open. While the NASDAQ was higher, the DJIA and S&P 500 were sloppy at best. While the NASDAQ has regained its entire loss for 2020 (not the highs, but since 1/2/2020), the DJIA is still -5054 or 17.5% and the S&P 500 is -392 or 12%. At the highs today the DJIA was +171 and finished on the lows -218.45 (.91%), NASDAQ +45.27 (.51%), S&P 500 -20.02 (.70%), the Russell -10.50 (.82%) and the DJ Transports -115.47 (1.43%). Market internals were weak with NYSE 2:1 down and NASDAQ 1.5:1 down. Volume was also light. On the DJIA we were decidedly down with 23 lower, 6 higher and PFE unchanged. The gainers were AAPL +21 and MSFT +12 DPs while on the downside we had UNH -29 and BA & TRV -24 DPs. Sectors on the upside included Info tech and consumer discretionary while Financial, Utilities and Energy the weak groups.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/RQTFwMS1vZk
SECTORS: Earnings played a part in today’s market again. PTON was higher by 1.81 before the numbers and after the beat the stock traded as high as $42.40 and settled $41.76 + 3.73. WYNN missed top and bottom lines with the slower than expected attendance in Macau and the stock, already down from a recovery high of $152 to close the day $79.25 -.42 fell to $76.50 before a $77.40 close -1.85. ETSY was also a disappointment after closing at a new all-time high at $78.24 +5.45 (7.49%) and after hitting $84.01 fell back to $69.11 and finished $74.05 – 4.19.
But the award for the day goes to the analysts who both downgraded Macro-Genics (MGNX) and lowered their price objectives to $13 from $17 (Credit Suisse) and $15 from $16 at SVB Leerink, only to have the stock report and then be halted for volatility several times on its way from last nights close of $7.60 to $27.34 and closed $25.15 +17.55 (230.92%)…GOOD CALL…Got your resume up to date??
FOOD SUPPLY: was MIXED with TSN -2.29, BGS +1.68 (8.6%), FLO -.62, CAG +.38, MDLZ -.18, KHC +.33, CALM +.12, JJSF -6.05, SAFM +.89, and LANC -.83.
BIOPHARMA: was MIXED with BIIB +2.34, ABBV -.05, REGN -19.37, ISRG -.86, GILD -1.89, MYL +.29, TEVA +.51, VRTX -2.27, BHC +.54, INCY -2.74, ICPT +8.65 (10.77%), LABU +.46 and IBB $127.00 +.02 (.02%).
CANNABIS: This group was LOWER with TLRY -.05, CGC -.41, CRON -.18, GWPH +2.48, ACB -.01, PYX +.16, NBEV +.02, CURLF -.09, KERN -.10 and MJ $11.50 -.35 (2.95%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -11.85, GD -4.40, TXT -.30, NOC -5.71, BWXT +1.53, RTX -1.35, and ITA $144.00 -3.45 (2.34%).
RETAIL was LOWER with M -.18, JWN -.14, KSS -.52, DDS -.20, JCP -.023, WMT -1.77, TGT +1.73, TJX -.49, RL -1.19, UAA -.13, LULU +4.80, TPR -.70, CPRI -.45 and XRT $36.31 +.10 (.28%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL -3.59, AMZN +27.30, AAPL +2.44, FB +.94, NFLX +11.04, NVDA +3.26, TSLA +11.39, BABA +.38, BIDU +.75, CMG -4.23, CAT -1.45, BA -3.70, DIS -.25 and XLK $92.03 +.71 (.78%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -2.10, JPM -1.97, BAC -.38, MS -.73, C -1.12, PNC -1.27, AIG -1.75, TRV -3.56, AXP -2.75, V -.33 and XLF 21.32 -.47 (2.16%).
OIL, $25.62 -.87. Oil was higher over-night and the rally continued early in the day to a new recovery high of $27.98 before falling back and closing down on the day. The stocks were lower across the board with the XLE $36.15 -.97 (2.61%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,688.50 -22.10. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1788 last Wednesday. We were stopped out of our position in the 5/15 163 calls on the 50% Down Rule. We are also long NEM.
BITCOIN: closed $9340 +355. After breaking out over $7500 we have consolidated and broken over 8,000 and 8,500 and again consolidated. Today’s close is the highest since BTC broke down in early March at $9385 and 9390. $10,000-10,250 seems like the next stop. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $10.76 +.73 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

For Trading May 7th

Split Market -NAZ Up, DOW Down
Earnings Galore
Today’s market was a split affair from right after the open. While the NASDAQ was higher, the DJIA and S&P 500 were sloppy at best. While the NASDAQ has regained its entire loss for 2020 (not the highs, but since 1/2/2020), the DJIA is still -5054 or 17.5% and the S&P 500 is -392 or 12%. At the highs today the DJIA was +171 and finished on the lows -218.45 (.91%), NASDAQ +45.27 (.51%), S&P 500 -20.02 (.70%), the Russell -10.50 (.82%) and the DJ Transports -115.47 (1.43%). Market internals were weak with NYSE 2:1 down and NASDAQ 1.5:1 down. Volume was also light. On the DJIA we were decidedly down with 23 lower, 6 higher and PFE unchanged. The gainers were AAPL +21 and MSFT +12 DPs while on the downside we had UNH -29 and BA & TRV -24 DPs. Sectors on the upside included Info tech and consumer discretionary while Financial, Utilities and Energy the weak groups.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/RQTFwMS1vZk
SECTORS: Earnings played a part in today’s market again. PTON was higher by 1.81 before the numbers and after the beat the stock traded as high as $42.40 and settled $41.76 + 3.73. WYNN missed top and bottom lines with the slower than expected attendance in Macau and the stock, already down from a recovery high of $152 to close the day $79.25 -.42 fell to $76.50 before a $77.40 close -1.85. ETSY was also a disappointment after closing at a new all-time high at $78.24 +5.45 (7.49%) and after hitting $84.01 fell back to $69.11 and finished $74.05 – 4.19.
But the award for the day goes to the analysts who both downgraded Macro-Genics (MGNX) and lowered their price objectives to $13 from $17 (Credit Suisse) and $15 from $16 at SVB Leerink, only to have the stock report and then be halted for volatility several times on its way from last nights close of $7.60 to $27.34 and closed $25.15 +17.55 (230.92%)…GOOD CALL…Got your resume up to date??
FOOD SUPPLY: was MIXED with TSN -2.29, BGS +1.68 (8.6%), FLO -.62, CAG +.38, MDLZ -.18, KHC +.33, CALM +.12, JJSF -6.05, SAFM +.89, and LANC -.83.
BIOPHARMA: was MIXED with BIIB +2.34, ABBV -.05, REGN -19.37, ISRG -.86, GILD -1.89, MYL +.29, TEVA +.51, VRTX -2.27, BHC +.54, INCY -2.74, ICPT +8.65 (10.77%), LABU +.46 and IBB $127.00 +.02 (.02%).
CANNABIS: This group was LOWER with TLRY -.05, CGC -.41, CRON -.18, GWPH +2.48, ACB -.01, PYX +.16, NBEV +.02, CURLF -.09, KERN -.10 and MJ $11.50 -.35 (2.95%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -11.85, GD -4.40, TXT -.30, NOC -5.71, BWXT +1.53, RTX -1.35, and ITA $144.00 -3.45 (2.34%).
RETAIL was LOWER with M -.18, JWN -.14, KSS -.52, DDS -.20, JCP -.023, WMT -1.77, TGT +1.73, TJX -.49, RL -1.19, UAA -.13, LULU +4.80, TPR -.70, CPRI -.45 and XRT $36.31 +.10 (.28%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL -3.59, AMZN +27.30, AAPL +2.44, FB +.94, NFLX +11.04, NVDA +3.26, TSLA +11.39, BABA +.38, BIDU +.75, CMG -4.23, CAT -1.45, BA -3.70, DIS -.25 and XLK $92.03 +.71 (.78%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -2.10, JPM -1.97, BAC -.38, MS -.73, C -1.12, PNC -1.27, AIG -1.75, TRV -3.56, AXP -2.75, V -.33 and XLF 21.32 -.47 (2.16%).
OIL, $25.62 -.87. Oil was higher over-night and the rally continued early in the day to a new recovery high of $27.98 before falling back and closing down on the day. The stocks were lower across the board with the XLE $36.15 -.97 (2.61%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,688.50 -22.10. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1788 last Wednesday. We were stopped out of our position in the 5/15 163 calls on the 50% Down Rule. We are also long NEM.
BITCOIN: closed $9340 +355. After breaking out over $7500 we have consolidated and broken over 8,000 and 8,500 and again consolidated. Today’s close is the highest since BTC broke down in early March at $9385 and 9390. $10,000-10,250 seems like the next stop. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $10.76 +.73 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

BTC, a response to the Cartel and the necessity of DeFi

Finding my legs in the Crypto sphere has been a wild ride to say the least. Watching BTC in particular drive up to its ATH was incredibly exciting for an anarcho-capitalist like me. I am not "allowed" to judge people as to why they are interested or invested in crypto, it is also an exercise in futility because in my opinion anybody invested/interested in BTC/Crypto are my allies. Allies in a fight against the central banks of the world - and the cartel.
Call me paranoid, but I have seen what the central banks are capable of. For me it began in 2008 or so when I saw the govt. and politics doing things that were against my interests. Upon investigation I learned what the FED was and seemingly what their agenda was. A really great animated short presents their 100+ years of existence and history before the FED was created, which can allow the observeinvestoenlightened a more macro perspective into why I think BTC and Cryptocurrencies were created. The video can be found here.
Two dimensionally we can see that the banking cartel are clearly not created for our best interest. I assert the banking cartel were created to control the money supply thereby limiting "peasant's" access to real assets in this world - controlling our lives, treating us like cattle. What crop are they harvesting? Our life force, our souls, our ability to create wealth. Do not sell humans short for an instant. We are capable of incredible feats, however, leashed like a broken horse we are now tools for the masters to reap financial benefits of our work/labointelligence/beauty/etc. The banking system, the diamond cartel in Africa, the enforcement through the military industrial complex are all a part of The Cartel.
The Cartel is extremely developed and they have another language for how they speak about world events. What we hear in this world is not the world as they know it. In the words of George Carlin:
It's a big club, and you ain't in it.
You will never be in it, and you better be damn sure they will kill people to ensure that they keep the club open. That is what the military industrial complex does for the cartel. Try to think of the cartel as a hydra. One head tends to political enforcement and squelches dissent (look at what is happening in Hong Kong), another head tends to financial enforcement not allowing the people to build wealth (see the FED). The more wealth people have- the more power people have, and the less they do; and they can't have that. The more power we as a population have, the less the enforcers have, and a next logical step forward would be prosecution of these corrupted heads of enforcement.
Now, after listening to market sentiment lately I hear a lot of people stressed about the recent dip in price. I think psychologically we are meant to feel this way by design. There is a great article that goes a little more in depth about crypto market manipulation and the CME, however, the main takeaway I found was this quote:
As price keeps dropping people start despising the asset. See what happened to Gold and Silver since 2011. The more it dropped the more people hated it. Many Gold bugs sold precious metals at the bottom and switched over to Bitcoin and Crypto (when it was at the top.) This exactly what “they” want the retail investor to do as “they” collect more of it at the lower prices.
Psychologically speaking, the financial industry as it is designed circa 1913-2008 has been a slow and steady blood letting of the population. They may stick only one needle and tube into your body but over a lifetime they will harvest an incredible amount of "energy" (money, resources, life-force) from just one individual .. also include trans-generational population control.
This is why bitcoin was created.
It was to free the people from this highly tuned machine that is consuming the souls of everybody you know. The sheer amount of on-chain data available and still being realized about the crypto markets (as now studied by Willy Woo and others) is likely tantamount to the data credit card companies are privy to. The cartel has generations of data with which to study and strategize their next enforcement campaign. We in the still very immature age of DeFi are only JUST discovering what we don't know.
We barely know: what we don't know..
This is why people are afraid of BTC/Crypto right now. This is why trolls and enemies and the unenlightened try to psychologically kill BTC/Crypto in the mind - it is a literal programming. It is a big machine and you and I are a cog, they are the driver. The beauty is, we have an instrument to finally break out of this prison of the soul. There will only ever be 21 million BTC, and after that value appreciates via the stock-to-flow ratio, that value will expand and follow paths of least resistance likely into a full fledged developed DeFi infrastructure - as the plan is laid out now. How and when we get there depends on many factors, but the most important concept for the people right now are faith, reassurance, and hard work.
Faith behind the idea of Crypto, reassurance that BTC/Crypto is not dead, and hard work behind the technology that will enforce a free world of tomorrow decoupled from the cartel and their toxic system that sucks the soul out of people.
I am excited about Pax Gold and even the possibility of staking the coin on a wallet earning compound interest. We are nearing a new age of banking/finance where the micro percents skimmed off the top are yours to keep. Every time I think of a social security number I think of a bar-code and ledger accounting for all the wealth the elites have harvested from a single person. I would assert people in 2019 create virtually $1,000,000 or more of value through out their lifetime (adjusted for inflation of course, trollol) that is recycled into the system via the matrix of financial control and enforcement.
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Unrelated: This video gives a great update on where I think we are from a macro psychological perspective and gives good general insight on global adoption.
https://youtu.be/Hx-V4DQhXeA
Countries like Venezuela, Brazil, also Africa are seeking the solution of Blockchain and BTC and Crypto, Brazil is considering adding BTC and ETH as a form of reserve currency. Stay frosty and HODL on .. were in for a wild ride.
submitted by MattMan970 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

The Great Bitcoin Bull Market Of 2017 by Trace Mayer

By: Trace Mayer, host of The Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast.
Originally posted here with images and Youtube videos.
I just got back from a two week vacation without Internet as I was scouring some archeological ruins. I hardly thought about Bitcoin at all because there were so many other interesting things and it would be there when I got back.
Jimmy Song suggested I do an article on the current state of Bitcoin. A great suggestion but he is really smart (he worked on Armory after all!) so I better be thorough and accurate!
Therefore, this article will be pretty lengthy and meticulous.
BACKGROUND
As I completely expected, the 2X movement from the New York Agreement that was supposed to happen during the middle of my vacation flopped on its face because Jeff Garzik was driving the clown car with passengers willfully inside like Coinbase, Blockchain.info, Bitgo and Xapo and there were here massive bugS and in the code and miners like Bitmain did not want to allocate $150-350m to get it over the difficulty adjustments.
I am very disappointed in their lack of integrity with putting their money where their mouths are; myself and many others wanted to sell a lot of B2X for BTC!
On 7 December 2015, with Bitcoin trading at US$388.40, I wrote The Rise of the Fourth Great Bitcoin Bubble. On 4 December 2016, with Bitcoin trading at US$762.97, I did this interview:

As of 26 November 2017, Bitcoin is trading around US$9,250.00. That is an increase of about 2,400% since I wrote the article prognosticating this fourth great Bitcoin bull market. I sure like being right, like usual (19 Dec 2011, 1 Jul 2013), especially when there are financial and economic consequences.
With such massive gains in such a short period of time the speculative question becomes: Buy, Hold or Sell?
FUNDAMENTALS
Bitcoin is the decentralized censorship-resistant Internet Protocol for transferring value over a communications channel.
The Bitcoin network can use traditional Internet infrastructure. However, it is even more resilient because it has custom infrastructure including, thanks to Bitcoin Core developer Matt Corrallo, the FIBRE network and, thanks to Blockstream, satellites which reduce the cost of running a full-node anywhere in the world to essentially nothing in terms of money or privacy. Transactions can be cheaply broadcast via SMS messages.
SECURITY
The Bitcoin network has a difficulty of 1,347,001,430,559 which suggests about 9,642,211 TH/s of custom ASIC hardware deployed.
At a retail price of approximately US$105/THs that implies about $650m of custom ASIC hardware deployed (35% discount applied).
This custom hardware consumes approximately 30 TWh per year. That could power about 2.8m US households or the entire country of Morocco which has a population of 33.85m.
This Bitcoin mining generates approximately 12.5 bitcoins every 10 minutes or approximately 1,800 per day worth approximately US$16,650,000.
Bitcoin currently has a market capitalization greater than $150B which puts it solidly in the top-30 of M1 money stock countries and a 200 day moving average of about $65B which is increasing about $500m per day.
Average daily volumes for Bitcoin is around US$5B. That means multi-million dollar positions can be moved into and out of very easily with minimal slippage.
When my friend Andreas Antonopolous was unable to give his talk at a CRYPSA event I was invited to fill in and delivered this presentation, impromptu, on the Seven Network Effects of Bitcoin.
These seven network effects of Bitcoin are (1) Speculation, (2) Merchants, (3) Consumers, (4) Security [miners], (5) Developers, (6) Financialization and (7) Settlement Currency are all taking root at the same time and in an incredibly intertwined way.
With only the first network effect starting to take significant root; Bitcoin is no longer a little experiment of magic Internet money anymore. Bitcoin is monster growing at a tremendous rate!!

SPECULATION
For the Bitcoin price to remain at $9,250 it requires approximately US$16,650,000 per day of capital inflow from new hodlers.
Bitcoin is both a Giffen good and a Veblen good.
A Giffen good is a product that people consume more of as the price rises and vice versa — seemingly in violation of basic laws of demand in microeconomics such as with substitute goods and the income effect.
Veblen goods are types of luxury goods for which the quantity demanded increases as the price increases in an apparent contradiction of the law of demand.
There are approximately 16.5m bitcoins of which ~4m are lost, ~4-6m are in deep cold storage, ~4m are in cold storage and ~2-4m are salable.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/lost-bitcoins-1.jpg)
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/lost-bitcoins-2.jpg)
And forks like BCash (BCH) should not be scary but instead be looked upon as an opportunity to take more territory on the Bitcoin blockchain by trading the forks for real bitcoins which dries up more salable supply by moving it, likely, into deep cold storage.
According to Wikipedia, there are approximately 15.4m millionaires in the United States and about 12m HNWIs ($30m+ net worth) in the world. In other words, if every HNWI in the world wanted to own an entire bitcoin as a 'risk-free asset' that cannot be confiscated, seized or have the balance other wise altered then they could not.
For wise portfolio management, these HNWIs should have at least about 2-5% in gold and 0.5-1% in bitcoin.
Why? Perhaps some of the 60+ Saudis with 1,700 frozen bank accounts and about $800B of assets being targetted might be able to explain it to you.
In other words, everyone loves to chase the rabbit and once they catch it then know that it will not get away.
RETAIL
There are approximately 150+ significant Bitcoin exchanges worldwide. Kraken, according to the CEO, was adding about 6,000 new funded accounts per day in July 2017.
Supposedly, Coinbase is currently adding about 75,000 new accounts per day. Based on some trade secret analytics I have access to; I would estimate Coinbase is adding approximately 17,500 new accounts per day that purchase at least US$100 of Bitcoin.
If we assume Coinbase accounts for 8% of new global Bitcoin users who purchase at least $100 of bitcoins (just pulled out of thin error and likely very conservative as the actual number is perhaps around 2%) then that is approximately $21,875,000 of new capital coming into Bitcoin every single day just from retail demand from 218,750 total new accounts.
What I have found is that most new users start off buying US$100-500 and then after 3-4 months months they ramp up their capital allocation to $5,000+ if they have the funds available.
After all, it takes some time and practical experience to learn how to safely secure one's private keys.
To do so, I highly recommend Bitcoin Core (network consensus and full validation of the blockchain), Armory (private key management), Glacier Protocol (operational procedures) and a Puri.sm laptop (secure non-specialized hardware).
WALL STREET
There has been no solution for large financial fiduciaries to invest in Bitcoin. This changed November 2017.
LedgerX, whose CEO I interviewed 23 March 2013, began trading as a CFTC regulated Swap Execution Facility and Derivatives Clearing Organization.
The CME Group announced they will begin trading in Q4 2017 Bitcoin futures.
The CBOE announced they will begin trading Bitcoin futures soon.
By analogy, these institutional products are like connecting a major metropolis's water system (US$90.4T and US$2 quadrillion) via a nanoscopic shunt to a tiny blueberry ($150B) that is infinitely expandable.
This price discovery could be the most wild thing anyone has ever experienced in financial markets.
THE GREAT CREDIT CONTRACTION
The same week Bitcoin was released I published my book The Great Credit Contraction and asserted it had now begun and capital would burrow down the liquidity pyramid into safer and more liquid assets.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/Great-Credit-Contraction-Liquidity-Pyramid.jpg)
Thus, the critical question becomes: Is Bitcoin a possible solution to the Great Credit Contraction by becoming the safest and most liquid asset?
BITCOIN'S RISK PROFILE
At all times and in all circumstances gold remains money but, of course, there is always exchange rate risk due to price ratios constantly fluctuating. If the metal is held with a third-party in allocated-allocated storage (safest possible) then there is performance risk (Morgan Stanley gold storage lawsuit).
But, if properly held then, there should be no counter-party risk which requires the financial ability of a third-party to perform like with a bank account deposit. And, since gold exists at a single point in space and time therefore it is subject to confiscation or seizure risk.
Bitcoin is a completely new asset type. As such, the storage container is nearly empty with only $150B.
And every Bitcoin transaction effectively melts down every BTC and recasts it; thus ensuring with 100% accuracy the quantity and quality of the bitcoins. If the transaction is not on the blockchain then it did not happen. This is the strictest regulation possible; by math and cryptography!
This new immutable asset, if properly secured, is subject only to exchange rate risk. There does exist the possibility that a software bug may exist that could shut down the network, like what has happened with Ethereum, but the probability is almost nil and getting lower everyday it does not happen.
Thus, Bitcoin arguably has a lower risk profile than even gold and is the only blockchain to achieve security, scalability and liquidity.
To remain decentralized, censorship-resistant and immutable requires scalability so as many users as possible can run full-nodes.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/ethereum-bitcoin-scability-nov-2017.png)
TRANSACTIONS
Some people, probably mostly those shilling alt-coins, think Bitcoin has a scalability problem that is so serious it requires a crude hard fork to solve.
On the other side of the debate, the Internet protocol and blockchain geniuses assert the scalability issues can, like other Internet Protocols have done, be solved in different layers which are now possible because of Segregated Witness which was activated in August 2017.
Whose code do you want to run: the JV benchwarmers or the championship Chicago Bulls?
As transaction fees rise, certain use cases of the Bitcoin blockchain are priced out of the market. And as the fees fall then they are economical again.
Additionally, as transaction fees rise, certain UTXOs are no longer economically usable thus destroying part of the money supply until fees decline and UTXOs become economical to move.
There are approximately 275,000-350,000 transactions per day with transaction fees currently about $2m/day and the 200 DMA is around $1.08m/day.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-transaction-fees-nov-2017.png)
What I like about transaction fees is that they somewhat reveal the financial health of the network.
The security of the Bitcoin network results from the miners creating solutions to proof of work problems in the Bitcoin protocol and being rewarded from the (1) coinbase reward which is a form of inflation and (2) transaction fees which is a form of usage fee.
The higher the transaction fees then the greater implied value the Bitcoin network provides because users are willing to pay more for it.
I am highly skeptical of blockchains which have very low transaction fees. By Internet bubble analogy, Pets.com may have millions of page views but I am more interested in EBITDA.
DEVELOPERS
Bitcoin and blockchain programming is not an easy skill to acquire and master. Most developers who have the skill are also financially independent now and can work on whatever they want.
The best of the best work through the Bitcoin Core process. After all, if you are a world class mountain climber then you do not hang out in the MacDonalds play pen but instead climb Mount Everest because that is where the challenge is.
However, there are many talented developers who work in other areas besides the protocol. Wallet maintainers, exchange operators, payment processors, etc. all need competent developers to help build their businesses.
Consequently, there is a huge shortage of competent developers. This is probably the largest single scalability constraint for the ecosystem.
Nevertheless, the Bitcoin ecosystem is healthier than ever before.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-ecosystem.jpg)(/images/bitcoin-ecosystem-small.jpg)
SETTLEMENT CURRENCY
There are no significant global reserve settlement currency use cases for Bitcoin yet.
Perhaps the closest is Blockstream's Strong Federations via Liquid.
PRICE
There is a tremendous amount of disagreement in the marketplace about the value proposition of Bitcoin. Price discovery for this asset will be intense and likely take many cycles of which this is the fourth.
Since the supply is known the exchange rate of Bitcoins is composed of (1) transactional demand and (2) speculative demand.
Interestingly, the price elasticity of demand for the transactional demand component is irrelevant to the price. This makes for very interesting dynamics!
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-speculation.jpg)
On 4 May 2017, Lightspeed Venture Partners partner Jeremy Liew who was among the early Facebook investors and the first Snapchat investor laid out their case for bitcoin exploding to $500,000 by 2030.
On 2 November 2017, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/blankfein-says-don-t-dismiss-bitcoin-while-still-pondering-value)said, "Now we have paper that is just backed by fiat...Maybe in the new world, something gets backed by consensus."
On 12 Sep 2017, JP Morgan CEO called Bitcoin a 'fraud' but conceded that "(http://fortune.com/2017/09/12/jamie-dimon-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-fraud-buy/)Bitcoin could reach $100,000".
Thus, it is no surprise that the Bitcoin chart looks like a ferret on meth when there are such widely varying opinions on its value proposition.
I have been around this space for a long time. In my opinion, those who scoffed at the thought of $1 BTC, $10 BTC (Professor Bitcorn!), $100 BTC, $1,000 BTC are scoffing at $10,000 BTC and will scoff at $100,000 BTC, $1,000,000 BTC and even $10,000,000 BTC.
Interestingly, the people who understand it the best seem to think its financial dominance is destiny.
Meanwhile, those who understand it the least make emotionally charged, intellectually incoherent bearish arguments. A tremendous example of worldwide cognitive dissonance with regards to sound money, technology and the role or power of the State.
Consequently, I like looking at the 200 day moving average to filter out the daily noise and see the long-term trend.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-price-200dma-nov-2017.png)
Well, that chart of the long-term trend is pretty obvious and hard to dispute. Bitcoin is in a massive secular bull market.
The 200 day moving average is around $4,001 and rising about $30 per day.
So, what do some proforma situations look like where Bitcoin may be undervalued, average valued and overvalued? No, these are not prognostications.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-price-pro-forma.png)
Maybe Jamie Dimon is not so off his rocker after all with a $100,000 price prediction.
We are in a very unique period of human history where the collective globe is rethinking what money is and Bitcoin is in the ring battling for complete domination. Is or will it be fit for purpose?
As I have said many times before, if Bitcoin is fit for this purpose then this is the largest wealth transfer in the history of the world.
CONCLUSION
Well, this has been a brief analysis of where I think Bitcoin is at the end of November 2017.
The seven network effects are taking root extremely fast and exponentially reinforcing each other. The technological dominance of Bitcoin is unrivaled.
The world is rethinking what money is. Even CEOs of the largest banks and partners of the largest VC funds are honing in on Bitcoin's beacon.
While no one has a crystal ball; when I look in mine I see Bitcoin's future being very bright.
Currently, almost everyone who has bought Bitcoin and hodled is sitting on unrealized gains as measured in fiat currency. That is, after all, what uncharted territory with daily all-time highs do!
But perhaps there is a larger lesson to be learned here.
Riches are getting increasingly slippery because no one has a reliable defined tool to measure them with. Times like these require incredible amounts of humility and intelligence guided by macro instincts.
Perhaps everyone should start keeping books in three numéraires: USD, gold and Bitcoin.
Both gold and Bitcoin have never been worth nothing. But USD is a fiat currency and there are thousands of those in the fiat currency graveyard. How low can the world reserve currency go?
After all, what is the risk-free asset? And, whatever it is, in The Great Credit Contraction you want it!
What do you think? Disagree with some of my arguments or assertions? Please, eviscerate them on Twitter or in the comments!
submitted by bitcoinknowledge to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

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Bitcoin Macro Bottom Is HERE... March 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis

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